The world cup champions and reigning european champions Spain won their third conscecutive major tournament a few days ago. Many bookmakers and experts had Germany, Netherlands and Spain as favourites, and I personaly (not an expert!) had the world cup runner-ups Netherlands as favourites.
Now it's time to evaluate. How predictable was the outcome. Who surprised and who disappointed the most?
The FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking seems like a good measure for the expectations. A lot of different sources could be equally good or even better, like for example one of the leading bookmakers odds before the tournament, but I will make use of the FIFA ranking table from june 6th 2012 (http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/index.html).
Above table need some explanation. Final position is based on (in given order)
a) final placement or position in group,
b) points,
c) goal difference,
d) goals scored
in each round of the tournament. FIFA prediction plain ranking is the EURO teams in the order they appear in the FIFA ranking table from june. Error is FIFA prediction minus final position. FIFA prediction group dependent is the simulated tournament where ranking has decided the outcome of each round in the tournament. The simulation is shown below. The numbers in front of each team is the FIFA zonal ranking (ranking for members of UEFA), and final position is based on
a) zonal ranking difference in match or position in group,
b) zonal ranking
As we can see from the table, Netherlands (-12) has disappointed most of all team in both predictive models, and Czech Republic (+8) has surprised most according to the plain ranking model, and Portugal (+10) and Italy (+8) has surprised most according to the group dependent model.
A graphical representation of above results is shown in below scatter plots.
As the figures illustrate, the FIFA prediction was better than random choosing, but far from superb. This statement is based on the fact that random choosing, on average, will have zero correlation with final position, and perfect prediction will have perfect correlation with final position, that is, correlation coefficient 1. The correlation coefficient between prediction and final position can therefore be used as measure of the goodness of the prediction, or in our case, where the FIFA ranking represent our expectations, the correlation coefficient will measure the predictability of the tournament.
The correlation between the predicted rankings and the final positions is 0.47 and 0.40 respectively.
Now it's time to evaluate. How predictable was the outcome. Who surprised and who disappointed the most?
The FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking seems like a good measure for the expectations. A lot of different sources could be equally good or even better, like for example one of the leading bookmakers odds before the tournament, but I will make use of the FIFA ranking table from june 6th 2012 (http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/index.html).
| Team | Final position | FIFA prediction plain ranking | Error plain ranking |
FIFA prediction group dependent | Error group dep. |
| Spain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Italy | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 8 |
| Portugal | 3 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 10 |
| Germany | 4 | 2 | -2 | 2 | -2 |
| England | 5 | 4 | -1 | 4 | -1 |
| Czech Republic | 6 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 6 |
| Greece | 7 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| France | 8 | 10 | 2 | 7 | -1 |
| Russia | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 | -3 |
| Croatia | 10 | 5 | -5 | 5 | -5 |
| Denmark | 11 | 6 | -5 | 9 | -2 |
| Ukraine | 12 | 15 | 3 | 15 | 3 |
| Sweden | 13 | 12 | -1 | 11 | -2 |
| Poland | 14 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 2 |
| Netherlands | 15 | 3 | -12 | 3 | -12 |
| Republic of Ireland | 16 | 13 | -3 | 14 | -2 |
Above table need some explanation. Final position is based on (in given order)
a) final placement or position in group,
b) points,
c) goal difference,
d) goals scored
in each round of the tournament. FIFA prediction plain ranking is the EURO teams in the order they appear in the FIFA ranking table from june. Error is FIFA prediction minus final position. FIFA prediction group dependent is the simulated tournament where ranking has decided the outcome of each round in the tournament. The simulation is shown below. The numbers in front of each team is the FIFA zonal ranking (ranking for members of UEFA), and final position is based on
a) zonal ranking difference in match or position in group,
b) zonal ranking
| Group A | Quarter final 1 | Semifinal 1 | |||||||
| Russia | 9 | Winner group A/Runner up group B | Winner QF 1/Winner QF 3 | ||||||
| Greece | 11 | Russia | 9 | Spain | 1 | ||||
| Czech Republic | 16 | Netherlands | 3 | Netherlands | 3 | ||||
| Poland | 32 | ||||||||
| Quarter final 2 | Semifinal 2 | ||||||||
| Group B | Winner group B/Runner up group A | Winner QF 2/Winner QF 4 | |||||||
| Germany | 2 | Germany | 2 | Germany | 2 | ||||
| Netherlands | 3 | Greece | 11 | England | 4 | ||||
| Denmark | 6 | ||||||||
| Portugal | 7 | Quarter final 3 | |||||||
| Winner group C/Runner up group D | |||||||||
| Group C | Spain | 1 | |||||||
| Spain | 1 | France | 10 | ||||||
| Croatia | 5 | ||||||||
| Italy | 8 | Quarter final 4 | Final | ||||||
| Rep. of Ireland | 13 | Winner group D/Runner up group C | Winner SF 1/Winner SF 3 | ||||||
| England | 4 | Spain | 1 | ||||||
| Group D | Croatia | 5 | Germany | 2 | |||||
| England | 4 | ||||||||
| France | 10 | ||||||||
| Sweden | 12 | ||||||||
| Ukraine | 28 | ||||||||
As we can see from the table, Netherlands (-12) has disappointed most of all team in both predictive models, and Czech Republic (+8) has surprised most according to the plain ranking model, and Portugal (+10) and Italy (+8) has surprised most according to the group dependent model.
A graphical representation of above results is shown in below scatter plots.
As the figures illustrate, the FIFA prediction was better than random choosing, but far from superb. This statement is based on the fact that random choosing, on average, will have zero correlation with final position, and perfect prediction will have perfect correlation with final position, that is, correlation coefficient 1. The correlation coefficient between prediction and final position can therefore be used as measure of the goodness of the prediction, or in our case, where the FIFA ranking represent our expectations, the correlation coefficient will measure the predictability of the tournament.
The correlation between the predicted rankings and the final positions is 0.47 and 0.40 respectively.
Just came up with a new measure for predictability. Apply FIFA ranking to the members of each group. Give score for how many teams was predicted to qualify for the knockout stage (5 of 8). In the quarter finals reapply the FIFA ranking to predict the teams for next round (3 of 4). In the semifinals reapply the FIFA ranking (1 of 2). Same for the final (1 of 1). This gives a total predictability of 10/15 or 0.67.
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