Seldom all newly promoted teams can avoid relegation in the first season of the new and higher league, but quite often I hear people saying that second season is the toughest. How can both statements possibly be true?
With help of Wikipedia, I have done little summary statistics on the promotion and relegation to and from the highest division in England and France. I’ve only counted from one season after last change to the number of teams in each league, that is since 2003 for the French league (expanded from 18 to 20 teams) and since 1996 for the English league (reduced from 22 to 20 teams).
First I chose the French league, because I thought that the number of teams promoted and relegated and the size of the league had been constant since the 1958-59 season, but I hadn’t done my research good enough. I realized that at least in the period from 1997-2002 the French league where reduced from 20 to 18 teams.
Then, to go a little bit further with the analysis, than just to look at the 2003-2011 seasons of the French league, I decided also to look at the English league, which has the same size and the same number of teams promoted and relegated.
The results are surprisingly equal between the two national leagues.
As expected, many of the newly promoted teams are relegated in the first season. In fact, in 1998 all three newly promoted teams in the English league (Barnsley, Bolton, Crystal Palace) where relegated after just one season in the highest league. But two things surprised me about the data.
First, the data between the two countries are almost identical (look at the percentages), especially if we regroup data so 3 and 4 seasons add up. Second, the statement about the second season being the hardest might in fact give meaning in some sense. As we see, almost no teams are relegated after 3 or 4 seasons, which could be interpreted as if a team survives 2 seasons, it might have established itself in the league, and will most likely do better than the new upcoming teams.
How about relegation then? How long does a team stay down after relegation? The summary statistics are following.
Be careful with the interpretation of above data. I think that the story to be told about the relegation data is, that many teams make an extraordinary effort to get back in the higher league (back to the big money) in the first (perhaps two) season, but if that fails, the team might be gone for a long time.
The relegation data differ a bit between the two leagues (look at the last two percentages). I haven't investigated it further, but maybe this is due to the differences in the size of league 2 and the promotion rules between the two countries? In France league 2 consist of 20 teams and the top 3 teams qualify directly for league 1, whereas in England, league 2 consist of 24 teams, the top 2 teams qualify directly and the 4 teams who finish 3 to 6, go through playoffs with two-legged semifinals and a final, for the last promotion spot.
With help of Wikipedia, I have done little summary statistics on the promotion and relegation to and from the highest division in England and France. I’ve only counted from one season after last change to the number of teams in each league, that is since 2003 for the French league (expanded from 18 to 20 teams) and since 1996 for the English league (reduced from 22 to 20 teams).
First I chose the French league, because I thought that the number of teams promoted and relegated and the size of the league had been constant since the 1958-59 season, but I hadn’t done my research good enough. I realized that at least in the period from 1997-2002 the French league where reduced from 20 to 18 teams.
Then, to go a little bit further with the analysis, than just to look at the 2003-2011 seasons of the French league, I decided also to look at the English league, which has the same size and the same number of teams promoted and relegated.
The results are surprisingly equal between the two national leagues.
| France | ||
| Promoted teams 2003-2010 | ||
| 24 | ||
| Seasons in the highest division before relegation | ||
| Seasons | Club count | Percent |
| 1 | 11 | 45,8 |
| 2 | 3 | 12,5 |
| 3 | 1 | 4,2 |
| 4 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 5 or more | 6 | 25,0 |
| Still in highest division but for less than 5 seasons | ||
| 3 | 12,5 | |
| England | ||
| Promoted teams 1996-2010 | ||
| 45 | ||
| Seasons in the highest division before relegation | ||
| Seasons | Club count | Percent |
| 1 | 21 | 46,7 |
| 2 | 6 | 13,3 |
| 3 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 4 | 2 | 4,4 |
| 5 or more | 12 | 26,7 |
| Still in highest division but for less than 5 seasons | ||
| 4 | 8,9 | |
As expected, many of the newly promoted teams are relegated in the first season. In fact, in 1998 all three newly promoted teams in the English league (Barnsley, Bolton, Crystal Palace) where relegated after just one season in the highest league. But two things surprised me about the data.
First, the data between the two countries are almost identical (look at the percentages), especially if we regroup data so 3 and 4 seasons add up. Second, the statement about the second season being the hardest might in fact give meaning in some sense. As we see, almost no teams are relegated after 3 or 4 seasons, which could be interpreted as if a team survives 2 seasons, it might have established itself in the league, and will most likely do better than the new upcoming teams.
How about relegation then? How long does a team stay down after relegation? The summary statistics are following.
| France | ||
| Relegated teams 2003-2010 | ||
| 24 | ||
| Seasons away from highest division | ||
| Seasons | Club count | Percent |
| 1 | 6 | 25,0 |
| 2 | 2 | 8,3 |
| 3 | 1 | 4,2 |
| 4 | 0 | 0,0 |
| 5 or more | 8 | 33,3 |
| Not back in highest division and relegated for no more than 5 seasons ago | ||
| 7 | 29,2 | |
| England | ||
| Relegated teams 1996-2010 | ||
| 45 | ||
| Seasons away from highest division | ||
| Seasons | Club count | Percent |
| 1 | 12 | 26,7 |
| 2 | 5 | 11,1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2,2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2,2 |
| 5 or more | 20 | 44,4 |
| Not back in highest division and relegated for no more than 5 seasons ago | ||
| 6 | 13,3 | |
Be careful with the interpretation of above data. I think that the story to be told about the relegation data is, that many teams make an extraordinary effort to get back in the higher league (back to the big money) in the first (perhaps two) season, but if that fails, the team might be gone for a long time.
The relegation data differ a bit between the two leagues (look at the last two percentages). I haven't investigated it further, but maybe this is due to the differences in the size of league 2 and the promotion rules between the two countries? In France league 2 consist of 20 teams and the top 3 teams qualify directly for league 1, whereas in England, league 2 consist of 24 teams, the top 2 teams qualify directly and the 4 teams who finish 3 to 6, go through playoffs with two-legged semifinals and a final, for the last promotion spot.
